TampaSpin

TAMPASPINS BLOG

TROPICAL OUTLOOK JUNE 1ST 2009!

Posted by TampaSpin on June 1, 2009 at 12:03 AM

Here is my thoughts on the 2009 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook!  On May 1st, I predicted 12 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, and 3 Major Hurricanes.

I am using my Rating System above under the Tab "Tropical Prediction Analysis" to rate each category as outlined and with reasoning to back each rating.

 

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES-4 rating

SST's appear to be running slightly below average this time of year. 

 

 

 

 

SHEAR-4 rating

Shear seems to be running about normal to slightly below normal.  With the forecast of possible El Nino or Neutral Esno conditions, this would tend to leave slightly above normal Shear or Higher Shear Values.

USEMAP=#map1 

 

 

SAL-SAHARAN AIR LAYER-5 rating

This is very difficult to figure out the amount of Dry air and Dust that will be in the Atmosphere during the season.  But, my best analogy on recent trends would lead me to believe that less dust is possible because of more mositure over Africa resulting in less dust storms.  Also current Dust seems is about normal.

 

 

PRESSURE-4 rating

Again this is very hard to set a value but, most documents and findings indicate that the Atlantic as a whole is running slightly above average with current conditions.  It is very difficult to project what the trend will be later but, to only base it on the current trend.

BERMUDA HIGH POSITION-7 rating

The Bermuda and Azores High is another very complicated item of focus to predict.  But, based on what it should do in Nuetral Esno conditions and where it already is located i have to give this a higher than normal rating.

 

 

MJO-8 rating

Again another very difficult forecast focus.  MJO is basically moisture in the Atmosphere that circles the globe about every 30-60 days.  We will currently go into a higher MJO position so if 30-60 days out would tend to put us in another uplift position starting about July into August.

 

CAPE VERDE LOWS SPINNING-6 rating

One never knows on this other than current trends!  The current trend has not seen strong spins coming off of Africa!  Although last year the trend was strong rotation off of Africa.  I will continue with that current trend in my rating.

 

 

LOCAL BREED-5 rating

With the current trend of cooler GOM SST's i am giving this a nuetral rating.  Again very hard to tell but, with the only Average to lower SST's currently it would be very hard to give this an above average 5 rating.

 

HISTORY TENDENCY-8 rating

I have given this a high rating based totally on the trend over the last several Years.

 

VOLCANIC RELEASE-4 rating

I have given this a below average rating.  I have based this on the amount of release from Valocano Redoubt and another eruption that has occured in South America.  Although this may not be very significant, what little has been released into the Stratosphere could deflect some sun light and cause some cooling as some of the dust has drifted into the Atlantic.

Summary:

Based on my rating system and plugging the numbers together, my best estimate for the 2009 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook is for:

1% chance of Above Average Conditions leading to

10 Named storms--the average is 9.6

6 Hurricanes--the average is 5.9

2 Major Hurricanes--the average is 2.3

I will enjoy hearing the debates of my thoughts and keep in mind these trends can change!

Thanks,

Tim

 

Categories: Tropical Forecast Blog

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10 Comments

Reply TampaSpin
1:27 PM on March 1, 2010 
So how well was my prediction for the 2009 Season of:
10 Named storms--the average is 9.6

6 Hurricanes--the average is 5.9

2 Major Hurricanes--the average is 2.3

We had:
9 Named storms
3 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricanes

Tropical Depression One
Tropical Storm Ana
Hurricane Bill
Tropical Storm Claudette
Tropical Storm Danny
Tropical Storm Erika
Hurricane Fred
Tropical Depression Eight
Tropical Storm Grace
Tropical Storm Henri
Hurricane Ida


Overall forecast from me was pretty good but, missed the forecast of hurricanes by 50%. I will take that loss any year. Let's hope this year is a miss also!
Reply TampaSpin
8:38 AM on June 6, 2009 
hahaguy says...
Great outlook. Just curious what places do you think are most at risk this year?


I think the West Coast of Florida and North Carolina will be at highest risk this year!
Reply RossBRB
2:05 AM on June 5, 2009 
Great Outlook
Reply hahaguy
10:34 PM on June 2, 2009 
Great outlook. Just curious what places do you think are most at risk this year?
Reply Cybrteddy
1:51 PM on June 1, 2009 
Agreed. But remember, it only takes 1. Such as in 1983 and 1992.
Reply TampaSpin
12:23 PM on June 1, 2009 
Cybrteddy says...
Well thought out Tampa! I agree with you, but I think the El nino might lag some. So I place it at 14 named storms.

I agree with the lag theroy but, the SST's are what im basing the largest decline in activity in the beginnning.
Reply Cybrteddy
11:06 AM on June 1, 2009 
Well thought out Tampa! I agree with you, but I think the El nino might lag some. So I place it at 14 named storms.
Reply TampaSpin
10:11 AM on June 1, 2009 
Bobbyweather says...
My forecast is now 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


That is slightly above average Bobby, but not an unreal Prediction. Sad thing is it only takes 1 NAMED storm for us to remember the season forever. Be Prepared for the Worst by getting your KITS together Now.
Reply Bobby Yoo
9:55 AM on June 1, 2009 
My forecast is now 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Reply Bobby Yoo
9:53 AM on June 1, 2009 
Nice blog, TampaSpin! Keep up the good work.

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