|Posted by TampaSpin on June 1, 2009 at 12:03 AM|
Here is my thoughts on the 2009 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook! On May 1st, I predicted 12 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, and 3 Major Hurricanes.
I am using my Rating System above under the Tab "Tropical Prediction Analysis" to rate each category as outlined and with reasoning to back each rating.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES-4 rating
SST's appear to be running slightly below average this time of year.
Shear seems to be running about normal to slightly below normal. With the forecast of possible El Nino or Neutral Esno conditions, this would tend to leave slightly above normal Shear or Higher Shear Values.
SAL-SAHARAN AIR LAYER-5 rating
This is very difficult to figure out the amount of Dry air and Dust that will be in the Atmosphere during the season. But, my best analogy on recent trends would lead me to believe that less dust is possible because of more mositure over Africa resulting in less dust storms. Also current Dust seems is about normal.
Again this is very hard to set a value but, most documents and findings indicate that the Atlantic as a whole is running slightly above average with current conditions. It is very difficult to project what the trend will be later but, to only base it on the current trend.
BERMUDA HIGH POSITION-7 rating
The Bermuda and Azores High is another very complicated item of focus to predict. But, based on what it should do in Nuetral Esno conditions and where it already is located i have to give this a higher than normal rating.
Again another very difficult forecast focus. MJO is basically moisture in the Atmosphere that circles the globe about every 30-60 days. We will currently go into a higher MJO position so if 30-60 days out would tend to put us in another uplift position starting about July into August.
CAPE VERDE LOWS SPINNING-6 rating
One never knows on this other than current trends! The current trend has not seen strong spins coming off of Africa! Although last year the trend was strong rotation off of Africa. I will continue with that current trend in my rating.
LOCAL BREED-5 rating
With the current trend of cooler GOM SST's i am giving this a nuetral rating. Again very hard to tell but, with the only Average to lower SST's currently it would be very hard to give this an above average 5 rating.
HISTORY TENDENCY-8 rating
I have given this a high rating based totally on the trend over the last several Years.
VOLCANIC RELEASE-4 rating
I have given this a below average rating. I have based this on the amount of release from Valocano Redoubt and another eruption that has occured in South America. Although this may not be very significant, what little has been released into the Stratosphere could deflect some sun light and cause some cooling as some of the dust has drifted into the Atlantic.
Based on my rating system and plugging the numbers together, my best estimate for the 2009 Atlantic Basin Tropical Outlook is for:
1% chance of Above Average Conditions leading to
10 Named storms--the average is 9.6
6 Hurricanes--the average is 5.9
2 Major Hurricanes--the average is 2.3
I will enjoy hearing the debates of my thoughts and keep in mind these trends can change!
Categories: Tropical Forecast Blog