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BUSY TROPICS COMING

Posted by TampaSpin on August 9, 2009 at 11:39 PM

 

visitor statsTampaSpins TROPICAL WEATHER ANALYSIS

ANA and Bill both coming?  Maybe!

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Current Shear

 

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Gulf of Mexico analysis:

Nothing to look at for the next 2 days!  No Tropical development in this area is expected in the next 48hrs.

 

 

Caribbean and Bahamas Anylysis:

Not much to speak of hear yet.  A small area of disturbance is approaching the Islands but, nothing is organized.  No Tropical development in this area is expected in the next 48hrs! 

 

North West Atlantic Anaylsis:

A blob is located at 37N 70W but, nothing expected to develop.  No Tropical development in this area is expected in the next 48hrs!

 

 

Central Atlantic Anylysis:

Here is where Areas of Interest begins.  The ITCZ is located at about 8N line.  Nothing is currently organized until you get to the far East Atlantic but, this area will be monitored as MJO uplift is approaching and things will become very active.  No Tropical development in this area is expected in the next 48hrs! 

 

Eastern Atlantic:

Invest 99L is currently located at 13N 25W with some potential for development.  Another Wave will be coming off Africa in a couple of days with Models showing to become a very large Cyclone.  The Cape Verde season is now upon us!  This area is very important to watch in August and September!  Many waves are trained across Africa.  These must be watched as they roll off Africa for possible develoment.  Keep in mind it's very hard for a Cape Verde storm to make it all the way to the ConUs but, when it does it usually isn't good.  The GFS Long range model is showing Multiple storms forming over the next few weeks from the CV area.  Tropical development could be expected in the next 48hrs from the Invest 99L near 25W.

Scroll below for a complete update on Invest 99L!

 

 

 

This Grapic updates every 15 minutes, left click open a new window too loop

 

 

 

 

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Atlantic - Wide View

Tropical Atlantic Coverage Area

            West Atlantic     Central Atlantic       East Atlantic

              West Atlantic Coverage Area      Central Atlantic Coverage Area      East Atlantic - Coverage Area

           Gulf of Mexico       Caribbean             East Coast

              Gulf of Mexico Coverage Area      Caribbean Coverage Area      East Coast Coverage Area

       Northwest Atlantic   North Atlantic    Northeast Atlantic

             Northwest Atlantic Coverage Area      North Atlantic Coverage Area      Northeast Atlantic - Coverage Area

 

  

2009 Named Storms:

Ana, Bill, Claudette, Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Joaquin, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, Wanda

IN SIMPLE TERMS OVERVIEW:

Tropical Cyclone Development is expected in the next 48hrs with slow development from Invest 99L possible.

INVEST ANALYSIS:

Invest 99L is located at  13N 25W.  Shear is forecast to be marginal for slow development.  Current SST's are running at 29c currently but, get somewhat cooler to its WNW to 27c.  The further South 99L stays the warmer SST's it will encounter.  SAL is ok in its current positions also but, Dry and Dusty air is to its North.  Again the further South 99L stays the better its chances for development.  Looking at the Steering maps above, i would say Invest 99L would move toward the WSW in the short term then continue on a Westerly move there after.  Some models are suggesting 99L will move toward the WNW then Nw as a break down between the Azores and the Bermuda High opens to allow for a fish storm.  I'm not sure this will occur.  Timing is everything and it does not appear to me that 99L will develop fast enough to feel the affects of the opening between the A/B Highs.  This will be interesting to see as it plays out over the next 2 days as to what 99L fate will be.  My best guess is it will miss the opening between A/B highs and be trapped under and continue westward toward the Northern Windward Islands.  Below is the forecast tracks that stay current.  Look at my Tropical Predicition Anyalyis to see my value inputs.  My inputs give 99L a 33% above average chance of development.  I believe we shall see ANA in a couple of days from Invest 99L.

 

 

 

 

   

IN SIMPLE TERMS TampaSpins ANALYSIS:

The short range Computer models (right click to open a new window)  are trying to develop a couple of CV storms with the most probable area over Africa currently.  Nearly every model is developing a system coming off Africa in a couple of days and tracking Westward through the Caribbean and toward the ConUs.  This is very far out to give much analysis into this possiblity but, let me say this.  It is that time of year when all should have the Hurricane Kits and plans into place.  If you have not, I would begin to do so and completed this week. 

The GFS LONG RANGE MODEL (right click to open a new window) also shows development in the far Eastern Atlantic in the 14 day forecast cycle runs.  It actually has multiple CV systems forming next week.  Thats too far out in time to have much confidence of something developing! 

 

Look at this This is my Favorite LOOP!  It is my favorite for viewing the Tropics.  Tropical Development is not expected in the next 48hrs. 

The link below is something that i developed and will be using during the Tropical Season.  It's often very hard to take emotions out of developing or non-developing systems.  So, i designed my own model to predict the potential development of systems with some subjective inputs and some non-subjective inputs to calculate the average conditions above or below conditions for development.  Currently nothing to show for development.    

This link (right click and open a new window) Tropical Prediction Analysis gives you my analysis for storms that have potential for devlopment.  There is also a Tab at the top for the Link!

Remember to right Click to open a new window!

Atlantic Floater 1

Nothing monitored

 

Click the Tab at the top TROPICAL WX GRAPHICS for a full Section of Tropical Graphics!

IN SIMPLE TERMS OTHER INTEREST:

Get your Plans in place NOW!  Things are and will continue to become very active over the next few weeks.  Nothing else of Interest in the next 48hrs!

  

 

Remember the National Hurricane Center are the Professionals and release complete updates at 11 and 5 on the hour and partial updates at 2 and 8 on the hour if needed. Also, the NHC identifies the Tropical Season from JUNE 1st THRU NOVEMBER 30th!

PLEASE BECOME A MEMBER AND COMPLETE THE INSTANT MESSENGER.  ITS A QUICK WAY TO SEE WHO IS ONLINE FOR INTERACTION WITH OTHERS!

 

I really appreciate the great comments you all leave. I try to always reply back if you leave a question or a REQUEST. And please leave comments on the Blog good or bad as all are welcome.

Thank you all for visting my Blog,

Tim...

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Categories: Tropical Forecast Blog

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11 Comments

Reply Lee Russell
8:41 AM on August 30, 2009 
Tampa this is theeeee best one-stop shopping place for everythign you need to know. Thansk for putting it together

LeeInNaplesFl
Reply R W Cramer
2:44 AM on August 11, 2009 
Thanks TampaSpin for all your Excellent work, this is a Super site. Second year now I find that your site is one of the most comprehensive, accessible, and best organized and people friendly sources for Tropical Weather info, that I have found on the web. I had a Blue Tarp on his house in West Palm Bch, FL for seven months after the 2004 season (Frances hit, then Jeanne came with the "final blow", sorry about he bad pun). Wilma was big fun in 05 too. I am therefore an "interested party" when in comes to Tropical Cyclones, haha... I sometimes check out Jeff Masters great blog on Wunderground, using my moniker of Archer312 (named after my Piper Archer aircraft). Keep up the good work, and keep those storms away from WPB, and from Tampa, haha. Many Thanks, W in WPB.
Reply TampaSpin
2:00 AM on August 11, 2009 
If you look at the Steering maps now! Everything would slam into Mexico....
Reply revheineman@aol.com
4:08 PM on August 10, 2009 
Great job on the site Tim! I love coming here and getting caught up because you explain easily for those of us who are still learning. Looks like we are getting into the meat of the season pretty quick.

-----Rev. Heather Heineman Titusville, FL
Reply hahaguy
1:23 PM on August 10, 2009 
the wave at 59w has been looking pretty impressive today so far. Ya that would be a perfect example lol.
Reply TampaSpin
1:20 PM on August 10, 2009 
hahaguy says...
ya same here.



We need to keep a close eye on the little thing at 59W. Its really looking very impressive........someone one asked can a storm begin to form without any Model support......this might be a good example.....LOL
Reply hahaguy
1:16 PM on August 10, 2009 
ya same here.
Reply TampaSpin
1:14 PM on August 10, 2009 
hahaguy says...
Great update Tim. Looks like the gfs wants to bomb out the next wave over africa.

Yes it does but, don't i won't surprised when 99L becomes Ana in 2 days as it moves West.
Reply hahaguy
1:07 PM on August 10, 2009 
Great update Tim. Looks like the gfs wants to bomb out the next wave over africa.
Reply Mike
5:32 AM on August 10, 2009 
Great site. Thanks for all the good info. I've Bookmark it.
Reply TampaSpin
2:41 AM on August 10, 2009 
One thing i forgot to mention was to watch the 850mb and the 550mb Vorticity to get stronger and become more overlayed on top of each other. Currently 99L has little Convergence and Divergence that storms need to pull together......which 99L currently lacks. This might take 2 days before a depression might form from 99L.

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