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TAMPASPINS BLOG

WINTER WEATHER UPDATE

Posted by TampaSpin on December 25, 2009 at 5:00 PM

visitor statsTampaSpins WINTER WEATHER ANALYSIS

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River Flooding Map.....RIGHT Click OPEN A NEW WINDOW to Zoom....  

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GFS Long Range Tempeature 10 Day Forecast Loop

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Current Surface Analysis in United States region

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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CAPE Values Site....great for detecting Potential Bad Weather!

 

 

 

 

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Categories: WINTER WEATHER THREAT BLOG

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20 Comments

Reply TampaSpin
5:09 PM on December 25, 2009 
Merry Christmas everyone! What a Winter STorm this is in the middle of the Country. Not many storms this time of the year move in the direction that this very intense Low is moving the past 24-36hrs. The low has moved NNW instead of the usual Easterly track. The Low will stall and then begin the Easterly track as it remains in the middle of the Heartland bringing Blizzard Conditions over a very wide spread. Snow fall totals could be absolutely enormous with this Christmas Storm and probably one of Historic credentials. The Low will stall moving West and begin a track to the ENE by Saturday and bring heavy snow to the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes. Hope the Heartland people was wishing for a White Chirstmas.......but, this might have been more than Wished. As long as everyone is safe i say Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow!
Reply TampaSpin
9:23 AM on December 1, 2009 
Severe Weather in the South seems very likley starting today as the collision of the ULL and a retorgrating Warm Front moving North collide. The collision area will have Shear very strong alot and spin off Tornado's . Cold air will not be in place for any Frozen precip until it reaches the Tennessee Valley and further North but, a second front in the South with another Low could be cold enough to possibly bring the frozen stuff further South as the Northern Jet does dip down in 7 days.
Reply TampaSpin
1:31 PM on November 30, 2009 
The Winter Storm i have been speaking of the last week is taking shape. The possiblity of very severe weather worse than we have seen the entire Tropical Season is possible along the GOM. The developing storm is very visible on WaterVapor above nearing the Mexico Texas line. This low will develop into a Major XtraTropical Storm in the NorthWestern GOM. The amount of wind in association with this storm could rival that of Ida near the North Carolina Coast. Those living along the GULF COAST from Tampa Bay northward and possibly even further south should prepare for coastal flooding during high tide. The possiblity of Tornadaic activity along the Northern Gulf Coast is becoming more likely. REad StormW's update also from the NWS......its speaks volumes.
Reply TampaSpin
10:06 AM on November 28, 2009 
A major Winter Storm will be moving into the South into Texas first and then spread across the South. This could be a traffic nitemare during the middle of the week. Be prepared for possible severe Weather in the form of Tornados into Alabama, Georgia and Florida. A Snow live as far South into possibly Florida appears very possible. The GFS model has a very strong NorEaster moving up the East Coast. Please make relatives aware as the South does not deal with Winter Precp. well!
Reply TampaSpin
8:02 AM on November 21, 2009 
Models are now pushing the developing low pressure area out to sea near the Outer Banks of NC and not move up the East Coast as thought....that will likely happen as the timing has now changed and delayed by a day or two.
Reply TampaSpin
10:11 AM on November 17, 2009 
Looking at the GFS models, it appears a Surface low will be developing in the GOM and move across Florida and up the East Coast as a NorEaster. This same weather pattern appears to be stuck in place for a while as a strong SubTropical Jet Stream is present and does not appear to be going anywhere for a while. This could cause for below average and colder temps for the south and a NorEaster field day for the East Coast if this does not change. I would expect a very rough snowy NorthEast in this weather pattern.
Reply TampaSpin
7:05 PM on November 16, 2009 
Looks like the Pineapple Express Train is coming to the South. The Southern Jet Stream is coming in screaming into Mexico. Looks like a cold and wet south upcoming for the Winter.
Reply TampaSpin
10:25 AM on November 11, 2009 
It would not surprise me to see some snow in the very higer elevations in the NE as the leftovers of IDA move up the East Coast as a NorEaster type storm. If she gets off shore some, she could tap into some more energy from the Gulf Stream!
Reply TampaSpin
10:20 AM on November 11, 2009 
Nothing appears to be severe for the day. That can change as CAPE values go up from the heating of the day, but there is not much in shear at different levels to support any tornados that i can see.
Reply TampaSpin
9:31 PM on November 9, 2009 
Here is an observation to suggest anyone living in Florida should watch there heads over the next 2-3days....IDA is not going anywhere very soon as seen in the forecast models above. The amount of inland flooding in Georiga and Northern Florida could be a major problem for many. Go to my site in the severe weather blog for a flooding graphic. Also a good chance of VERY SEVERE WEATHER will be possible over the entire state of Florida. If you look at the Satelite loop above you will see a band extending all the south of Cuba into the Caribbean that will be pushing toward the west Coast of Florida as IDA does make its turn toward the EAST as forecast by all models. This band could envolve a very wide spread of possible Tornado activity as i have been trying to say now for the last several days. Been saying all along don't look at impact area as very far away one could be affected and impacted. Again this band will arrive across the entire state of Florida as Ida moves East. Put your weather radios on now as a precaution before going to bed tonite.

Also if you go to my website you will and go to the severe weather blog update. You will see the forecast maps of temperatures and looking at where SubTropical IDA may go up the easter seaboard, we might see beach and costal flooding all the way up the coast and a snow storm from hell near the New England, Boston,Mass area and Northward...welcome Winter to the Northeast
Reply TampaSpin
9:45 AM on November 9, 2009 
I have added a River Flooding map in the Graphics above to watch. I would expect as the HYBRID system stalls for a while a severe inland flooding event could occur. If you right click the graphic and open a new window you can zoom into your location as the graphic updates automatically as updated from the National Weather Service.

I would also expect to see a wide spread amount of a Severe Weather threat in the forms of Tornados NorthEast and South of where the Hybird IDA makes land fall. Watch the graphics above and refresh your browser as need for continues up to the minute updates as all refresh.
Reply TampaSpin
2:17 PM on November 2, 2009 
Finally a few days of calm, but wow look at the Temperature Graphics falling. Cold air moving NorthEast and a little further South. South still hot!
Reply TampaSpin
2:56 AM on October 31, 2009 
It appears the really severe Weather will possibly calm some tomorrow. The most severe Weather could now occur IMO near the Tennessee Valley area and southward into Georgia. I don't believe the severity will be as bad but, this will be an area to watch as the heating of the day will create enough instability to cause for some strong storms especially in areas that will get some sun shining before the front arrives. The energy has moved north that created the most severe weather.
Reply TampaSpin
11:55 AM on October 30, 2009 
Wow, another day of very Serious bad weather is coming for Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Arkansas. If you look at colliding winds in the CAPE graphics above, one can see where the severe weather will be. This is a very dangerous situtaion that is developing. Tornado's will be most likely to occur. Open the Sounding Analysis link above for the highest CAPE values. The Shear is the big problem with the collision of winds at defferent levels creating the turn for the tornado's.
Reply TampaSpin
1:40 AM on October 29, 2009 
Nice dip in the Jet Stream from the Low. Above is the Forecast track of the Low....Good thing it does not come East much further. I do not like the dry line over Texas. Severe Weather is likly in borders of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Arkansas. If this low was to go further East Severe weather would be extended further East. We need to watch to make sure this moves as forecast! Watch the CAPE value Graphic for colliding wind shear.
Reply TampaSpin
10:48 AM on October 28, 2009 
The potential for some severe Weather near NorthEast Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas for tomorrow is very possible. A Low will be coming out of the Rockies, where it is Snowing currently, will bring some instability to the south mixed with high humidities and Shear alot could bring a strong day of severe Weather including possible Tornados for Thursday. This could turn very bad tomorrow. You can see the low i the graphics above along with the 24hr severe weather potential Graphic above.
Reply TampaSpin
11:44 AM on October 27, 2009 
Very Severe Weather is moving into the Panhandle of Florida. Some of these could produce Tornados. Although the current CAPE values are not very high a brief and small Tornado is possible in the most severe Storms as shear is in place to produce such. Please be aware and take caution if you live in the this area. Use the SEVERE WEATHER WARNING LINK above for monitoring it updates automatically and is a great tool.
Reply TampaSpin
4:57 AM on October 27, 2009 
The very extreme cold that the GFS had forecast a few day ago in the South has now dropped off that idea. Looks like deep south next cool down won't happen for a while as a ridge of High pressure is very strong and the dip in the jet will now ride over the top of it and not break it down........HUM....this might not bold well in the Tropics next week if that ridge stays achored as it is now. Shear will be dropping. Time will tell!
Reply TampaSpin
10:59 AM on October 26, 2009 
Severe Weather is possible near Corpus Cristi Texas and should spread slowly east and northward. The current CAPE values for South Texas is over 4000. There is a chance for Tornados from the strong Shear with those high CAPES!
Reply TampaSpin
9:33 AM on October 24, 2009 
It appears that very extreme and unsually cold temperatures will hit the Western United States first as you can see the long range forecast above and those cold temperatures will move into the MidWest, SouthEast and East Coast on about November 2-5! Be prepared for the first major Cold blast and the first possible Winter Storm of the year coming for the East Coast and could be very far South. Flordia will experience possible record breaking cold Temperatures if this event follows as forecast.

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