TAMPASPINS BLOG

Dangerous Day and Weekend Possible

Posted by Timothy Richardson on April 23, 2010 at 9:45 AM

visitor statsTampaSpins WINTER WEATHER ANALYSIS

Day 1 Text Link Day 3 Text Link

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Severe Weather Warning Link

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Valid WW Image

 

 

 

 

Watches & Warnings in United States region

 

 

12 hour Loop of Enhanced Infrared Satellite Image

 

 

Water Vapor Satellite Image

 

12 hour Loop of Water Vapor Satellite Image

 

 Current Radar in United States region

 

River Flooding Map.....RIGHT Click OPEN A NEW WINDOW to Zoom....  

MAJOR FLOODING

MODERATE FLOODING

MINOR FLOODING

NEAR FLOOD STAGE

NO FLOODING

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Below is a 24hour Temperature Map!

 

Below is a 48hour Temperature Map!

 

Below is a 72hour Temperature Map!

 

 

GFS Long Range Tempeature 10 Day Forecast Loop

 GFSx 1000 mb Plot

 

NAM 60 Hour Temperature Forecast Loop

NAM Surface Loop

 

 

 

 

 

Below is 24hour Precipiation Map!

 

Below is 48hour Precipiation Map!

 

Below is a 72hr Precipiation Map!

 

 

 

Current Surface Analysis in United States region

 

 

 

 

 

 

GIF Image 

 

 

 

 

GFS 00z/12z Model Forecast (10:30 am and 10:30pm)

Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 5 Days)

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GFS 06z/18z Model Forecast (5:30am and 5:30pm)

Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 5 Days)

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NAM Model Forecast (00 and 12Z)

(available beginning T+2:45HR) 11:45am and 11:45pm

Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 3 1/2 Days)

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NAM Model Forecast (06 and 18Z)

(available beginning T+2HR) 5:00am and 5:00pm

Total Accumulated Snowfall (Out To 3 1/2 Days)

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Model Analyses and Forecasts

GENS 00 UTC 48hrs out

approximate updated time is 1am

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Model Analyses and Forecasts

GENS 06 UTC 48hrs out

approximate updated time is 7am

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Model Analyses and Forecasts 

GENS 12 UTC 48hrs out

approximate updated time is 1pm

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Model Analyses and Forecasts

GENS 18 UTC 48hrs out

approximate updated time is 7pm

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GIF Image

 

 

 

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CAPE Values Site....great for detecting Potential Bad Weather!

 

 

 

 

Severe Weather Warning Link

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Categories: WINTER WEATHER THREAT BLOG

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16 Comments

Reply Timothy Richardson
9:46 AM on March 28, 2010 
There is a possiblity of some severe Weather today throughout the SEastern corner of the US. From Georgia to the SE Coastal states including Florida could experience some severe Weather. Current CAPE forecast do not show much severe stuff, but let me warn that the heating of the day before it clouds over and the heating could cause enough lift to unstable the air. There does not appear to have much shear to cause much in tornados but, the smaller size tornados in Florida are cuased mainly not by shear but severe intensity of storms with lots of lift and downburst. Everyone stay safe today!
Reply Timothy Richardson
10:51 AM on February 23, 2010 
Looks like anther Snow Storm for South Georgia and the Carolina's will be coming next week around March 2nd time frame......Check out the Computer Forecast Models above...HAVE FUN!
Reply Timothy Richardson
10:41 AM on February 23, 2010 
I can not believe another Cold weather outbreak is moving into South Florida again next week with Snow forecasted into Florida and the Deep South again............you gotta be kidding!.......GEESH!
Reply Timothy Richardson
2:08 AM on February 12, 2010 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2010

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST BASIN...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1004 MB LOW NEAR
27N93W. THIS SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RATHER QUICKLY AND IT IS MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO PAPANTIA MEXICO NEAR
20N97W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO NEAR 21N88W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF NORTH OF
23N...WITH THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
10 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE FAR EASTERN
BASIN...AND NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 998 MB
IN 24 HOUR WHILE MOVING EASTWARD TO TAMPA FLORIDA WITH
CONVECTION.THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:20 AM on February 12, 2010 
Statesboro GA


Hazardous weather condition(s):


Winter Storm Watch


Overnight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Calm wind.

Friday: Rain and snow, mainly after 1pm. High near 42. Calm wind becoming northeast between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Friday Night: Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 27. North wind between 8 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47. West wind between 7 and 10 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. West wind around 6 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:02 AM on February 12, 2010 
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON.

GA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...CALHOUN...CLAY...
DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY...IRWIN...LEE...MILLER...
MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL...TIFT...
TURNER...WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BERRIEN...COLQUITT...COOK.

FL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WALTON...WASHINGTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

BARRY/WOOL


...PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION......

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...AND THE INLAND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...INGREDIENTS ARE
COMING TOGETHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR A RARE WINTER STORM IN THE DEEP
SOUTH. WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A POTENT SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES TRAPPED IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S THIS AFTERNOON. CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IS KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...FURTHER HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOL CONDITIONS.

AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE WAS
ALMOST UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A STRONGER SFC LOW THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF TIGHTENING THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LESSENING THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE TALLAHASSEE AREA. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT COLD AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND THE
PANHANDLE NORTH OF I-10 TO SUPPORT A SNOW EVENT.

THE PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF THE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST AND ENCROACH
ON THE WESTERN CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
INITIALLY...THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN...POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SLEET AND SNOW. PRECIP WILL BE RATHER LIGHT BEFORE
SUNRISE AS THE DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY SATURDAY.

BY SUNRISE...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...PRECIP INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO PICK UP THE THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRECIP TO
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND NORTH OF I-10 IN
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BY MID MORNING...THE PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AS WELL. WITH SFC
TEMPERATURES HOVERING JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO CALL. QPF AMOUNTS
RANGE FROM ONE-HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER THIS REGION.
USING A CONSERVATIVE RATIO OF 3 TO 1 ALONG I-10 AND 5 TO 1 FARTHER
NORTH YIELDS ROUGHLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH
UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA.
THIS WILL BE THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

SOUTH OF I-10 IN THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA NORTH OF
VALDOSTA WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE MIXING AND WARMER SFC TEMPS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE INCH WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BEING ISSUED. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH GEORGIA
ALONG THE FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING VALDOSTA...MAY SEE
A RAIN/SNOW MIX...BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE BIG BEND IS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN TOO WARM
TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF MIX IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OUT TO
THE NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIP WILL END QUICKLY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
KICK EAST RAPIDLY. COLD AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
Reply Timothy Richardson
11:59 PM on February 11, 2010 
HERE YOU GO MY DAUGHTER JUST WHAT YOU HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR........LOL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

...RAIN TURNING TO SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A VERY DRY AIRMASS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K
FEET...BENEATH A DEEPENING CLOUD LAYER. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS THUS
BEEN FAIRLY WEAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY DEPENDENT ON
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING WHICH NOW APPEARS THE BULK OF WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE...WHEN PRECIP FINALLY STARTS TO REACH THE
GROUND. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING AFTER SUNRISE DUE TO THE
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AFFECTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...DECIDED TO
RAISE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE BOARD. ALSO LOWERED POPS BY ABOUT 10
PERCENT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE.

JUST NOW GETTING A BRIEF GLIMPSE OF THE 0Z NAM RUN AND A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS LOOKING
VERY LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND AN INCH OF HEAVY WET SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...POSSIBLY 2
INCHES. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT FURTHER EVALUATE ALL THE DATA
BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DECISION ON A WINTER STORM WARNING. IF THE
0Z GFS RUN COMES IN SIMILAR TO THE NAM THEN A WARNING WILL BE
LIKELY. THIS IS A VERY DYNAMICAL SYSTEM AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS NOT UNREASONABLE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE WINTER STORM PRODUCTS AND THE WINTER WEATHER
BRIEFING ON OUR WEBSITE WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAX TO STAY UP TO DATE ON
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:49 PM on February 10, 2010 
A very strong surface Low Pressure 1004mb is forecast to move across SW Florida probably sometime Friday. This will be a very strong wind event and costal flooding will occur with a difference in the gradient Pressures trying to fill into the Low. We could expect sustained winds of 30-40mph for a period of time causing power failures. This will also bring very extremely cold weather into SW Florida! Get some firewood if you have a fireplace in case of power failures do occur as i expect.
Reply Timothy Richardson
1:35 AM on February 10, 2010 
Models are showing a very southern snow storm coming to the Gulf Coast states and into Georgia and then into North Carolina. This could be a very large event coming into the deep south. The i10 Corridor from Tallahassee to Jacksonville and into Southern Georgia could see 2-3 inch totals possibly. These areas have no snow removal things in place and it could paralyze these areas for the day. Be prepared to leave your vechiles in the drive way on Friday if this storm makes that southern route as some models are now currently forecasting. Sissy you might just get your snow in Statesboro, Ga. Stay warm and safe little girl!
Reply Timothy Richardson
11:41 AM on January 27, 2010 
This is one big storm coming into the Tennessee Valley region and then into the North Carolina area......could be a lot of ice and freezing rain....which means no POWER FOR DAYS possibly......be prepared for such an event.
Reply Sissy Richardson
12:52 AM on January 27, 2010 
great job on th website dad, I go to it quite often, i love you and keep up the good work! xoxox
Reply Timothy Richardson
11:15 AM on January 26, 2010 
My post on January 21st appears to be very accurate. Looks like a very large winter storm is coming for the Tennessee Valley. Hope your ready!
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:24 PM on January 21, 2010 
mike baker says...
how far south do you think it will snow?I live in Jackson County in Mississippi.



Yes you could see Snow in that area late next weekend. It is very hard tho for enough cold air at all levels to be in place to produce Snow along the Gulf Coast States. We will see!
Reply Timothy Richardson
12:15 PM on January 21, 2010 
mike baker says...
how far south do you think it will snow?I live in Jackson County in Mississippi.



Athough very hard to predict. Best guess is, you could get a dusting this time around but, it is always very hard to get enough cold air at all levels along the Gulf Coast States to have snow.
Reply mike baker
12:00 PM on January 21, 2010 
how far south do you think it will snow?I live in Jackson County in Mississippi.
Reply Timothy Richardson
11:34 AM on January 21, 2010 
Anotther Blast of Artic Air Mass is coming as far South as SW Florida into the Freeze line again. This time it appears enough Moisture will be in place to provide for the Snow into the Northern Gulf Coast States and the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys could get a whopper of a Snow Storm. The timing appears to be toward the end of next Week the SouthEast somewhere around Friday January 29th-31st! Get your firewood ready again . Florida snow might be possible again.